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20180628




Complex orbital resonances, as dimensionally-compacted estimators, are gravitationally-correlated to sunspot cycle length and variation through magnetohydrodynamic tidal forces and torsion of magnetic field lines through potential modulation of electromagnetic field boundary density and coupling relations. Here, the 12-year Jupiter orbit seems to control the Schwabe cycle reciprocally with Earth's orbital perturbation, resulting [with perturbative power from multiple-bodied planetary gravitational harmonics] in strong 8-year sub-cycles. The ~8-year component is strongly-resolved, paired with the 11-year component in PSDs of solar radio flux and sunspots. Just as compelling, the165 year orbit of Neptune is also a strong mode in the PSD of solar radio flux. When applied to the available extended sunspot count model after 11-year trend smoothed and with respect to harmonic conjugation, these partitions can be integrated directly (see PSD and DCT analysis below). Mercury and Uranus in relation to the gravitational interplay between the sun and Earth-Moon explain the data better than the norms of consecutive planetary vectors, the orbital paths of intervening planets omitted. These 3-bodied systems are indicated M-E-J and E-J-U. The entire eight-planet system follows the same consecutive rule: M-V-E-M-J-S-U-N.

Examples of event embeddings into extended time domain superpositions I have performed toward the elimination of correlations between LIGO event timing and various geomagnetic, ionospheric, magnetospheric, interplanetary magnetic field, and solar coronal data: time domain histograms (superposed epoch analyses) and statistical functions for solar, IMF/solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere records

These are some admittedly strange (but formally correct) results demonstrating that particular anomalous space weather intervals are also correlated with sawtooth oscillations and magnetospheric proton injection events through LIGO triggers.

[this post is under construction, and additional data sources and references are coming]

https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/modelweb/

https://data.nasa.gov/Space-Science/HelioWeb/

http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_gravitational_wave_observations

https://www.facebook.com/fulguritics/posts/10217034379239635



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sunspots, zero daily counts/yr; LIGO GW events, day/yr, luminosity distance

sunspots, zero and all Fibonacci number daily counts/yr; LIGO GW events, day/yr, luminosity distance


Sunspots, January 1749-Feb. 2009, y/x=count/mo.












There should be no multiple-correlations to exact changes in broad, coupled planetary orbit and interplanetary-solar magnetic field change with the timing, distance, energy, and magnitudes of gravitational wave events, and this keeps appearing throughout the analysis, which is merely a well-controlled, multiply-falsifiable, and rigorous program that applies the most stable mathematical methods equally and exhaustively onto all available datasets for any time scale possibly comparable onto LIGO data.

I refrain from any use of parametric statistical distributions and only aim for exactness, not statistical confidence. Only evidence, more evidence, sampling, more sampling, measurement, and more measurement can precede selection of models. LIGO selects models after wiggle-fitting templates generated from simplified ad hoc computer models that approximate GR to reduce complex propagating error. ANY degree of correlation between non-gravitational wave signals during detection periods and any LIGO targeted signal content undermines the reliability of the 5.1-sigma standard so coveted (since it became a substitute for evidence).

LIGO has failed to express their concern for checking the fitness of models, adequacy of protocols for detection of false positive triggers, and the consistency of signal processing - but are very vocal when others do so. Perhaps we take for granted a six-month media blackout offering no new information (rehashed work submitted to arXiv in January was published July 2, 2018 - offering a needlessly circumlocutory report overstated in headlines and seemingly attempting to conflate plateaus in light emission of a particular set of wavelengths as a proxy for all wavelength emission from NGC 4993 kilonova, coupled with a propaganda piece on ArsTechnica).  I am not longer able to readily locate papers on theory for ELF gravitational wave detection that utilized thunderstorm data, expecting minuscule perturbations in fields to change higher order relations between site geometry and impulse time symmetry, assuming coherence.

20180619




Magnetospheric sawtooth particle injection event recorded in GOES-13 magnetospheric proton counts/s, with shock arrival and unusually-precipitous flux spike (a particle injection event) at geostationary orbit calculated to arrive during the few minutes surrounding GW170817. This delay between proton count peak and GW170817 signal arrival is 37.9 minutes, ± 3 min; standard feedback-modulated/stabilized lags for the Northern Hemisphere are coincidentally identical with certain multi-phase quasiperiodic particle injection minimum arrival lags from magnetosphere bow shock ahead of magnetopause, with approx 3-5 minute delay added to 30-40 minute terrestrial polar magnetosphere-thermosphere propagation period preceding coherent geomagnetic coupling response, related to variable solar wind density and speed; its transient response function is potentially associated with long or multiple (distributed) TGFs from TLEs and Q-bursts (or a potentially unknown kind of magnetospheric hard x-ray burst, if not itself the arrival of a delayed particle flux from a CME), which fit spectral calibrations much better than a weak or swept, off-axis GRB coinciding with GW170817 sky localization at the solar angle, an event known as AT 2017gfo, a kilonova in NGC 4993. This kilonova poorly fits all non-perturbative classical models without foreground effects contributing to signal power; only its existence and correlation with GW170817 is not debated actively in many areas of physics.
 arXiv search: GRB170817A, kilonova
arXiv search: GW170817, kilonova

GW170817 occurs at green bar terminating the quasiperiodic noise phase at the initial sawtooth stage of the complex structural variation between proton flux signals, terminated initially by a precipitous proton flux spike; GW170817 represents crossover at a global minumum:

Ground magnetometers also registered an exceptional, coupled, and magnetosphere-driven event, such as in this plot from the Brandon station in Southern Manitoba:

41-62 minute magnetospheric propagated lags sharply defined and with statistical Poisson parallelism between VMR_k (incremental Fano factor) and l2 norm of multivariate GOES-15 electron flux time series. These data provide further evidence for a diurnal class of sawtooth conditions, suggesting vacuum-like boundary injections modulating electron flux coupling behavior relative to GOES-15 longitude
(135°00'00.0"W); the proton injection event corresponds to a benchmark magnetospheric proton flux enhancement, strongest in GOES-13 proton detector, uncorrelated with a known solar flare arrival recorded in all three GOES proton count datasets; it is not known if any GLE was recorded https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2009JA015171:
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GOES geostationary coordinates and LIGO locations, clockwise from top left: LIGO Hanford, LIGO Livingston, GOES-13, GOES-14, GOES-15 (forgive my provisional use of Google Earth until I prepare a custom map) 
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geomagnetic field, Z-component, for a LIGO-encompassing ground station array selected for five stations on August 17, 2017 UTC, with GW event indicated:

Bay St. Louis, MS magnetometer (approx 120 km from Livingston, LA) presents the strongest Z-component peak at the trigger time for GW170817. The GW170817-L1 signal was the most distinctive signal for the LIGO-Virgo array, but a profound "glitch" corresponded with the point of greatest band coherence directly preceding peak SNR.

The k-variance of N=5 NA ground mag data for Z-component

Magnetometer stations: 
BSL (Bay St Louis)
 BOU (Boulder) 
FRD (Fredericksburg)
 FRN (Fresno)
VIC (Victoria)

data for these stations for any day for the entire SuperMag coverage period: http://supermag.jhuapl.edu/mag/?stations=BOU%2CFRN%2CVIC%2CFRD%2CBSL

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a231456.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray_visual_phenomena
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_particle_event
http://cdaweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/istp_public/
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
https://solarflare.njit.edu/dataproducts.html
http://www.sidc.be/silso/groupnumberv3
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/goes/dataaccess.html
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/database-csv/v2/
ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au/wdc/wdc_ion_archive/
https://fermi.gsfc.nasa.gov/ssc/data/access/gbm/tgf/
https://fermi.gsfc.nasa.gov/ssc/data/access/
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar/corona.html
http://smdc.sinp.msu.ru/index.py?nav=ch
http://www.solen.info/solar/
http://www.solen.info/solar/old_reports/
http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html

Solar elevation difference from 90° during the GW170817 event with respect to dual messenger co-localization centroid between Tanzania and Madagascar is identical to the upper limit (28° - the calculated angle of the so-called off-axis short GRB associated with GW170817 a short GRB seen off-axis, [1710.06421] Off-Axis Emission of Short GRB Jets from Double Neutron Star Mergers and GRB 170817A), and this radius is significant, given the near-solar sky localization for NGC 4993. The lower solar elevation deviation bound from linked publications (16°) is the solar elevation deviation from the Northern bound (Horn of Africa) with identical longitude for the Fermi-Integral and first LIGO-VIRGO sky localization with respect to the final SL centroid longitude (see small thunderstorms in general region, showing discharge synchronzed with global magnetospheric-ionospheric modes). The mean differential angle I calculated from the five relevant coordinates (E boundary of joint GW/GRB sky localization area, W boundary, VIRGO, LIGO Livingston, and LIGO Hanford is 24.2° (differentials from right orthogonality not treated like circular quantitites, although they imply a circular horizon):

var (decimal values): 62.67
sd (decimal values): 7.92
arith. mean: 24.2°
geomean 23.2°
harmean 22.22°

HLV (Hanford-Livingston-Virgo) sky area: 28 deg2
viewing angle: (without host galaxy identification) ≤ 56°, (with host galaxy identification) ≤ 28° 
θ_obs ∼ 20° — 28° a short GRB seen off-axis



http://maravelias.info/wp-content/uploads/GW170817-data-mod.png
which was most strongly sensed at Livingston, LA, but with an exceptional glitch that was merely subtracted.

Fermi GBM counts (light curves) and timescale-likelihood plots
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02378.pdf
Datei:ApJL 848 L13 Fig2 Multi-messenger detection of GW170817 and GRB 170817A.svg

Globally-coherent CG lightning triggering coupled with magnetospheric sawtooth event on August 17, 2017 link to CG lightning activity as data and GIFs for each of seven LIGO GW triggers




























NGC 4993 was not instrumentally visible for three months following initial weeks of observation due to the secular obstruction by the solar domain, and was not (adaptively, Look-elsewhere effect - Wikipedia) localized given LIGO parameter estimation for nine hours following GRB170817A trigger.Brightening neutron-star collision stumps astrophysicists - Futurity

Thunderstorm over East Texas during GW170817, its 5-minute lightning surrounding event is superimposed by a graphical projection of the NGC 4993 GW source https://cplberry.com/2018/01/17/gw170817-the-papers/. Great circle domains are exact semi-empirical thunderstorm spatial eigenmodes (from prior unpublished and ongoing personal work), with multiple [deterministic] scaled fits:






https://science.msfc.nasa.gov/content/longest-length-and-longest-duration-lightning-strike-ever-recorded

Same projection of LIGO 2D spectral model for GW150914 data over scaled domain model on five minutes of ground strike lightning preceding GW150914 from Oklahoma double supercell on September 14 2015, occurring in the exact relation to both the August 17 2017 TX supercell lightning (as fitted in these precisely-scaled overlays) and to the 2007 superbolt as described here and in article links.




























https://science.msfc.nasa.gov/content/longest-length-and-longest-duration-lightning-strike-ever-recorded
2007, Oklahoma: supercell storm phase generating longest lightning discharge path length recorded (321 km), from radar image rotated 18°from orthogonal coordinates. Both of these storms share spatial frequency scaling. The 183 km maximal bilateral spatial eigenmode [approx the radius of the reconstructed black hole source specified in LIGO publications of 175-186 km] is also the maximum 2D energy density dimension of each of the dual oscillatory cells of the Oklahoma GW150914-coincident thunderstorm.

A colored noise floor structure inextricably-linked to the upchirped ELF broadband transient known as GW150914 is composed of instrumentally waveguided resonant broadband TEM and TE-TM modes evolving relativistically from magnetic coupling at subluminal velocities at LIGO-specified spin rates for pre- and post-merger phases. This range is 0.57-0.75 c for GW150914.  All three storms and discharge regimes are potentiated through critical, self-organizing quasiperiodic stability and share a similar location, but developed years apart; storms with these properties are sprite-producing and are almost always strongly coupled to ionospheric driving by the magnetosphere. These storms are also strongly-bound to location (carbonate aquifer boundaries with petroleum deposits), drifting very little over the course of hours and showing strong domain-bound rotational and cyclical behavior. As GW170817 strain data record, at the very least, local attenuation of an amplified magnetic transient (deriving from a similar strong magnetospheric-ionospheric coupling regime with time symmetry breaking, which is evident also for the six other LIGO high-confidence events that are generally accepted as astrophysical), some models from data scaled using Bayesian-generated approximations will preserve eigenmodes, modulation, and "jitter" from unwanted coherent electromagnetic components fundamentally affecting wavelet envelopes and template fits. 

Interpretations of poorly filtered signal through naively-subtracted noise lead from prior experimental probabilities resting on the degree of confidence in former interpretation of prior high-confidence signals. In this sense, scale invariance can mask enhanced noise at LIGO calibration reference Q-factors, but is treated without attention to its dynamic sources in LIGO analysis. For GW170817, LIGO-Virgo data were very weak, affected by a glitch at Livingston, and non-existent for Virgo; Livingston is closest to the active storm over Texas overlapping shortest inter-detector length between detectors, and of ground magnetometer datasets utilized for coincident signal identification, Bay St. Louis has the strongest Z response.   
https://science.msfc.nasa.gov/content/longest-length-and-longest-duration-lightning-strike-ever-recorded
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/svr/type/spr/home.rxml



Storm occurring during GW170817 is shown as cluster of yellow points near center of map; LIGO Hanford and Livingston are large black points at opposing ends of the yellow dashed line representing their line of sight propagation length, with the red star indicating the approx. centroids for both the record-breaking 2007 Oklahoma superbolt and the September 14, 2015 storm evolving with GW150914:


GW150914 GIS-spatial frequency analysis showing detector locations in relation to thunderstorm compared above to GW170817 event day storm and to resulting LIGO models reflecting the symmetry of these noise sources

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2008JA013764


Further information on research involving lightning driving by magnetospheric coupling during interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parametric coherence:



http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a231456.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray_visual_phenomena
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_particle_event
http://cdaweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/istp_public/
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
https://solarflare.njit.edu/dataproducts.html
http://www.sidc.be/silso/groupnumberv3
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/goes/dataaccess.html
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/database-csv/v2/
ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au/wdc/wdc_ion_archive/
https://fermi.gsfc.nasa.gov/ssc/data/access/gbm/tgf/
https://fermi.gsfc.nasa.gov/ssc/data/access/
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar/corona.html
http://smdc.sinp.msu.ru/index.py?nav=ch
http://www.solen.info/solar/
http://www.solen.info/solar/old_reports/
http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html