Analysis of error phase correlations found in ~22 minute electromagnetic dead time (cf. " Observations of discrete harmonics emerging from equatorial noise" [Balikhin et al. 2015])

These notes are motivated by my own frustration at how weak and permissive our demands for rigor have become, to have enabled a culture at LIGO-Virgo of pervasive social-epistemological dishonesty. It is clear that an experimental-practical crisis of unscientific selectivity is a consequence of the attenuation of talent over goal-seeking specialists who are generally inexperienced with the high international standards for interdisciplinary collaboration, where we expect stark, honest communication of doubts and concerns - an effort to find physical explanations for any eventuality affecting experimental processes, no matter how disappointing and damning they may be. By now (October, 2024), the novelty of LVC has worn off, and little has been done to publicize systematic error sources outside of their probabilities in an idealized framework - one that has not been demonstrated to be possible, for better or for worse. LIGO detectors serve many functions, have detected interesting events, and are certainly not a mistake in themselves as such, but the arbitrary de-correlation and relegation of error/noise into the meaningless category of 'glitches' shows that, when applied to initial estimation of signal source confidence, all methods to estimate false alarm rates by LVC are unempirical, and even worse: circular, without updated confidence estimation based on accumulation of INITIAL PLAUSIBILITY of triggers and their data that eventually are deemed false alarms. It is too late now to revise this attitude of overconfidence without further reducing the frequency of candidate event signals at all, and to commit type II errors, rather than Type I errors that seem to vanish from their meta-experimental view in favor of a bubble of probability that grows increasingly dependent on fewer events, themselves modeled with more assumptions as their analysis is refined. As waveform identity between templates and any number of chirp-like signal sources (abundant in nature in EM foreground, without gravitational wave physics involved in their emission) should lead to investigation of coincident noise sources within conventional data that capture solar system and terrestrial physical activity. So, models that cannot be generated in all cases from the same theoretical principles are promulgated through overfitting and brute force whenever it is demanded that a trigger CANNOT be merely noise. Even a single admission that a strong signal that is well-fit using Numerical Relativity is wrong would subject the entire LIGO catalogue to scrutiny by a wider audience. 

I'll interpret the feeling of indifference that has become the norm toward LIGO-Virgo claims to be a sign that credulity is cooling. 

The paper Observations of discrete harmonics emerging from equatorial noise (Balikhin et al. 2015) shows self-organizing or emergent-modulated behavior in ionospheric dynamics that have an event length window that appears in the internal reports on observatory operation noise and statistics of coincident non-GW events around LIGO-Virgo triggers. 

I examine this statistical relationship here:

https://fulguritics.blogspot.com/2022/10/tr2.html




Ordered quasi-stationary noise spectrum at frequency range at which LIGO-Virgo event spectral power dominates, persisting at known correlated strain noise duration https://nature.com/articles/ncomms8703…


Propagated WIND solar wind/IMF indices for July 6, 2013 with ~22-min window indicated by blue solid lines (second line superimposes dashed line indicating proper hour):

Power spectral ordered structures within ~22 minute noise that corresponds to trigger times of LVC events given their noise windows. All LVC signal are surrounded by phase-correlated noise, which also corresponds to maximal saturation periods of onsite magnetometers, which functionally simulate a stable noise floor, allowing the emergence of a cohesive peak signal that is interpreted as an event that is independent of observation method. For 2013 structured noise event, we find upchirps in spectrographic representation that are likely degenerate mixtures of nonstationary signals, whose parameters are highly dependent on the location and sampling rate/range of detectors. Lower sampling rates with or without different frequency response range can produce entirely different information about the same event, or synthesize events from aligned noise, or locate ordered components in a net disordered, but ergodic, interval, much of said order from systematics, or field responses to their own modulation by energetic events elsewhere, such as particle injections, magnetic reconnection, critical magnetic electroacoustic charge density perturbations (e.g. collapsing/coalescing fixed vortex/null pair structures [permittivity vortices]) in the interplanetary magnetic field, or collisionless shocks.

July 6, 2013 CLUSTER observation environment, sample of upchirped spectral structures above, and the same for the period of September 14, 2015 LIGO trigger, with spectral signal power showing analogous properties:





High prob. of LIGO-Virgo events during same window of #Cluster obs. of periodic-quasiperiodic behavior in equatorial noise, w/uncanny waveforms, frequency range as LVC events - #magnetosphere also almost mirror image. #GW150914 9:50:45 UTC, Cluster ~18:50 https://fulguritics.blogspot.com/2018/06/progress-on-ligo-event-analysis-here.html…
https://twitter.com/Fulguritics/status/1279043468048732161/analytics